tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-15277662176507731412012-01-27T10:53:25.612-08:00Demand Side BlogAlanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07323700324276425194noreply@blogger.comBlogger7691100tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1527766217650773141.post-77852505766588657802012-01-22T22:55:00.000-08:002012-01-22T22:55:58.632-08:00Transcript: 489 A dispute with Keynes over KeynesianismToday we’re going to explore the proposition that Keynes and the Keynesians have missed a basic point. Or have not noticed the evolution of the economy. I am not talking about NeoKeynesians – classical economists in sheep’s clothing – but the great man himself, his most important interpreter Hyman Minsky, and such able economists of the present day as Joseph Stiglitz. The point they have Alanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07323700324276425194noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1527766217650773141.post-5448355496934289392012-01-15T20:12:00.000-08:002012-01-15T20:12:17.720-08:00Transcript: 489 Commercial Real Estate revisitedOne of the key parts of the Demand Side forecast last time was the vulnerability of regional banks to commercial real estate’s collapse. Our calculation was simple: continued high vacancy rates would put downward pressure on rents. Since much CRE is highly leveraged and its owners have limited liability legal structures to hide behind, as soon as rents stopped covering the debt service, ownersAlanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07323700324276425194noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1527766217650773141.post-67185311299052866692012-01-12T21:28:00.000-08:002012-01-12T21:28:46.903-08:00Chartalism unbound, a conversation with Nathan Tankus<!--[if gte mso 9]> Normal 0 false false false EN-US X-NONE X-NONE MicrosoftInternetExplorer4 <![endif]--><!--[if gte mso 9]>Alanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07323700324276425194noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1527766217650773141.post-91150753503127821622012-01-08T08:48:00.000-08:002012-01-08T08:48:47.458-08:00Transcript: 488 An economist walks into a bar....The standup economist is Yoram Baumann, and if you’ve ever heard him do his Mankiw bit, you’ve laughed. But economics is full of jokes told by serious people not realizing they are jokes. It is a profession of straight men and a few women, who have no sense of humor. Not that they’re solemn like funeral directors, they’re just clueless.
Listen to this episodeOne piece of evidence is the Alanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07323700324276425194noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1527766217650773141.post-78455166116580476812012-01-04T09:18:00.000-08:002012-01-04T09:18:23.412-08:00Podcast has overwhelmed bandwidth at Jellycast, Here's an alternativePodcast Listeners,
If you cannot get access to the podcast, it is because you have subscribed to the feed with the limit on bandwidth, and that bandwidth got overwhelmed by Occupy Harvard relays.
The podcast is still available, however, by subscribing to the second feed, which can be got by searching "demandside" one word on iTunes, or wending your way through from this link: demandside
Our Alanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07323700324276425194noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1527766217650773141.post-77929141143891964072011-12-31T18:55:00.000-08:002011-12-31T18:55:49.592-08:00Transcript: 486 New Year's Non-HappeningsApologies to our long-time listeners for the spotty podcasting over the past few months. We have pressure from other commitments, which we hope at some point will subside. But we cannot pass up the turn of the year and the opportunity to produce our annual list of events widely reported and sincerely repeated that did not actually happen.
Included on the list,
Housing prices bottomed and a Alanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07323700324276425194noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1527766217650773141.post-88935010880503521002011-12-20T20:33:00.000-08:002011-12-20T20:33:00.787-08:00Archon Fung on Inequality, Why and What to Do About ItArchon Fung - Why Has Inequality Grown in America? What Should We Do? View more presentations from whatsnewsisyphus
Alanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07323700324276425194noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1527766217650773141.post-83625117397816965712011-12-19T02:30:00.000-08:002011-12-19T22:13:12.344-08:00Juliet Schor on Economics for the 99%, Distribution and EnvironmentAlanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07323700324276425194noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1527766217650773141.post-88161481225079779252011-12-17T22:05:00.000-08:002011-12-17T22:05:34.358-08:00Richard Parker on the Market as God and the Greek windowWall Streetʼs Role in the European Financial Crisis - Richard Parker, Lecturer in Public Policy and Senior Fellow at the Shorenstein Center, Kennedy School of Government, Harvard University
Alanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07323700324276425194noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1527766217650773141.post-35033611795645163292011-12-16T22:01:00.000-08:002011-12-17T22:03:32.856-08:00Stephen Marglin on Alternatives to Mankiw's IdeologyHeterodox Economics: Alternatives to Mankiw’s Ideology - Stephen Marglin, Walter Barker Professor of Economics, Faculty of Arts and Sciences, Harvard University
Alanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07323700324276425194noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1527766217650773141.post-17048897826074317572011-12-09T21:57:00.000-08:002011-12-09T21:57:54.392-08:00Transcript 477: Will the Euro Survive? Wrong Question.Today we return briefly to the podcast on the eve of the non-answer from the European heads of state. It must be a non-answer because it responds to the wrong question.
The question? “Will the euro survive?” Wrong question, since the euro could survive as the currency of a stable economic union or it could survive as the smoke above the rubble.
Listen to this episode
The real question is theAlanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07323700324276425194noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1527766217650773141.post-29909812092603984352011-12-06T08:32:00.000-08:002011-12-06T08:32:50.808-08:00Joseph Stiglitz: Macroeconomics in CrisisJoseph Stiglitz's presentation on the occasion of CERGE-EI's 20th anniversary on Monday, 10 October 2011 in Prague, Czech Republic.
The full video, and a highly edited (for style, not substance) series of audio files below.
Macroeconomics in Crisis
Audio Files:
Part 1
Part 2
Part 3
Part 4
Q&A Question 1
Q&A - Question 2A and 2B
Q&A - Question 3Alanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07323700324276425194noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1527766217650773141.post-67370900676245763552011-11-28T00:30:00.000-08:002011-11-28T00:30:16.429-08:00Steve Keen: We're in a Depression, This is the Way Out - RelayAlanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07323700324276425194noreply@blogger.com3tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1527766217650773141.post-28251918985228393492011-11-24T08:20:00.000-08:002011-11-24T08:20:12.395-08:00Podcast: Roubini on U.S. Recession, Eurozone ContagionListen to this episodeAlanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07323700324276425194noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1527766217650773141.post-37313050753733875342011-10-25T20:31:00.000-07:002011-10-25T20:31:57.259-07:00Roubini Week: Summary of Perth Address50 Percent Chance of Another Recession
by Nouriel Roubini
From Perth Now:
THE economist known as “Dr Doom” has tipped a more than 50 per cent chance of another global recession that could force the break-up of the eurozone.
Professor Nouriel Roubini spelled out for delegates at the Commonwealth Business Forum in Perth today there were potential positive and negative impacts stemming from the Alanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07323700324276425194noreply@blogger.com3tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1527766217650773141.post-58209509354263176352011-10-19T19:25:00.000-07:002011-10-19T19:25:04.676-07:00Net Real GDP Historical ChartsA long-time listener asked about historical charts for Net Real GDP. Here are some 1947 through 2006.
(click on the charts for a larger image in a new window)
Alanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07323700324276425194noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1527766217650773141.post-10385481910418850892011-10-19T12:55:00.000-07:002011-10-19T19:37:52.684-07:00Transcript 463: Forecast Interest RatesToday on the podcast, interest rates. And the return of Idiot of the Week. Plus some audio from Robert Shiller, advocating direct employment of people in public works, the true Keynesian prescription.
Listen to this episode
First, Shiller. We like this audio because it uses the best metaphor for the economy and government – the family farm. We’ve used it before, and welcome its introduction Alanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07323700324276425194noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1527766217650773141.post-43494972980667132512011-10-14T21:03:00.000-07:002011-10-14T21:15:36.957-07:00Transcript 462: Forecast Real GDP and Net Real GDPYou’ll see in today’s forecast of Real GDP and Net Real GDP the same chart we presented in January. It bounces, but it’s bouncing along the bottom, a bottom sloped downward, with craters from easily predictable crises.
We also have audio from Justin Rowlatt of Business Daily and Brian Lucey of Trinity College Dublin, nicely laying out the true dynamics of the European mess .
Listen to this Alanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07323700324276425194noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1527766217650773141.post-60662015169826060012011-10-03T07:58:00.000-07:002011-10-03T07:58:35.531-07:00Transcript 461: Forecast CommoditiesLong-time listeners will appreciate that our call for negative growth in the second half of 2011 was made in the first days of 2011, not at the end of Q3.
Now, just as last month the turning in the sky was from recovery to no recovery, it is now from recovery to recession. This was epitomized by Laksman Achutan of Economic Cycle Research Institute when he rushed to press in the last days of Alanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07323700324276425194noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1527766217650773141.post-14381101553815498162011-09-26T22:20:00.000-07:002011-09-26T22:48:51.830-07:00Transcript 460: Forecast InflationInflation:
Backing the Fed and monetary policy is like watching your horse come in last in every race and still putting money on it in the Derby.
Inflation
It is often claimed that the Federal Reserve has a dual mandate. Indeed, there is such a thing in law. The Humphrey-Hawkins Full Employment Act of 1978 established full employment and price stability, along with requiring the Fed’s Alanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07323700324276425194noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1527766217650773141.post-15789897979352861322011-09-18T22:53:00.000-07:002011-09-18T22:53:08.344-07:00Transcript 459: Forecast Capacity UtilizationListen to this episode
The forecast today: Capacity Utilization, trending down for 45 years and going to record lows, is our projection. First a note on “Leadership.”
We’re looking for leadership these days, I’m told by the newly anxious. Leadership is what you call for when things are going wrong and people need to step up and do the right thing. We have been calling for leadership for theAlanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07323700324276425194noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1527766217650773141.post-8707932027852928982011-09-16T10:36:00.000-07:002011-09-16T10:36:37.889-07:00Transcript 458: Forecast Median Household IncomeListen to this episode
Today on the forecast: Median Household Income. While we’re on the subject of income, we’ll show that income disparity, particularly the rise of the super-rich, is a signal of decay, instability and potential collapse. That signal has been flashing red for several years.
but first a note on the Jobs Bill.
As we predicted last week, the President’s jobs speech is more Alanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07323700324276425194noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1527766217650773141.post-63010527950383419692011-09-06T21:41:00.000-07:002011-09-06T21:41:17.770-07:00Transcript 457: Forecast EmploymentListen to this episode
A full employment economy is the only healthy economy. Last week we visited the current employment depression via our forecast for headline and U-6 unemployment rates. This week, we’ll look at employment growth itself and what can and cannot work in getting jobs for a healthy economy. Plus the forecast. Grim forecast.
We’re going to propose that in this day of high Alanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07323700324276425194noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1527766217650773141.post-14305922989800038642011-09-01T11:44:00.000-07:002011-09-02T10:44:15.522-07:00Transcript 455: Forecast: Unemployment (with charts included)Listen to this episode
Employment growth and the real rate of unemployment are not only key economic indicators. They are the measure of the economy. All the other numbers, including GDP growth and the other indices, are secondary. Labor is the primary capacity that must be used to its maximum. A full employment economy is the only healthy economy.
This is intuitively understood. People Alanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07323700324276425194noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1527766217650773141.post-68836935433355657932011-08-21T22:40:00.000-07:002011-08-21T22:40:58.829-07:00Transcript 454: Forecast: ProductivityListen to this episode
Today on the podcast we change our focus from the previous 453 episodes. No longer will we be taking up the issue or policy of the week, nor will we be promoting the demand side explanation. Instead we will be forecasting and looking at issues and examples of forecasting. Of course, – in the words of George Soros’ mentor Karl Popper –since “Predictions and explanationsAlanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07323700324276425194noreply@blogger.com3tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1527766217650773141.post-56524279354435173532011-08-17T23:10:00.000-07:002011-08-17T23:10:59.215-07:00Response to Nathan Tankus on Payroll Tax HolidayWe got a response from long-time listener to the podcast or reader of the blog challenging our dismissal of the payroll tax holiday as an effective tool for getting out of the mess we're in. We thought we'd bring it up to the top half of the page, and we'll probably do that for other commenters in the future, since we have excellent comments (as far as you know, anyway, since the non-excellent Alanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07323700324276425194noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1527766217650773141.post-28019115222514521062011-08-14T22:16:00.000-07:002011-08-14T22:19:22.347-07:00Transcript 453: Simon Johnson and the Hysterical Matrons of the MarketListen to this episode
Downside risks in our baseline forecast, which we repeated in January, included a new and messier financial sector meltdown. Hard to imagine even today, you say, with the huge cash balances at the banks, now $1.4 trillion. That is ten percent of GDP. You forget that many of the assets on their balance sheets are valued at mark-to-make-believe. Combine this with the newAlanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07323700324276425194noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1527766217650773141.post-82701458181288121752011-08-11T06:46:00.000-07:002011-08-11T06:46:30.539-07:00James K. Galbraith says "Show me the deficit"Stop Panicking About Our Long-Term Deficit Problem. We Don’t Have One.
James K. Galbraith
New Republic
August 9, 2011
Standard & Poor’s did not downgrade the U.S. political system. It did not downgrade the stock market. It downgraded United States Treasury bonds and bills—and did so after Congress had removed whatever tiny chance existed of even a small delay in payments. So it’s instructive Alanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07323700324276425194noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1527766217650773141.post-12246249380626089572011-08-09T07:46:00.000-07:002011-08-09T07:46:11.064-07:00Transcript 452: Echo Chamber Abandons RecoveryListen to this episode
With head-snapping speed, the echo chamber abandoned recovery last week. Yes, the much-ballyhooed recovery engineered by the three amigos Baffled Ben Bernanke, Gofer Tim Geithner, and Tiny, Timid and Temporary Larry Summers, with their trillions in support to the banking sector and not one dime to households. That recovery. What? Didn’t happen. In the area roped off Alanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07323700324276425194noreply@blogger.com9tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1527766217650773141.post-17411929533546287032011-07-31T22:29:00.000-07:002011-07-31T22:29:22.399-07:00Transcript 451: Extreme Economic WeatherListen to this episode
The whole Lancelot v. the Black Knight debt ceiling production ran into trouble last week. You have to wonder what they’re making of the news in Washington and on Wall Street. All this orchestration, set design, sound design, lighting, costumes, staging. It was up and running to record audiences, if not rave reviews, and then the lights go out. Yikes.
People spill Alanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07323700324276425194noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1527766217650773141.post-24274576321916801952011-07-24T17:23:00.000-07:002011-07-24T17:23:00.298-07:00Transcript 450: Real Recession Continues as Political Theater DistractsListen to this episode
Returning from our three and a half week retreat we expected to see more difference in the economic landscape than actually met our eye. Unfortunately, the political theater is in summer reruns, and nothing of substance has really changed, which means things are getting worse.
The debt ceiling debate has everyone else focused, and I suppose it is possible that Alanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07323700324276425194noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1527766217650773141.post-44327889062156454342011-06-28T21:40:00.000-07:002011-06-28T21:40:34.966-07:00Transcript 449: Double Denial:Failure of Economics, Collapse of EcosystemsListen to this episode
Paul Gilding:
At some point you have to recognize that the trends are now clear. So yes, we are seeing extreme weather and we have before. But the extreme weather is more extreme. It is coming more often. Scientists are now saying very clearly that the average temperature is increasing, that the frequency of a variety of types of weather is increasing, and the Alanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07323700324276425194noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1527766217650773141.post-12027162870238358622011-06-23T05:15:00.000-07:002011-06-23T05:15:48.876-07:00Transcript 448: Forecast, at least here, for accuracy, Main Street beats Wall StreetListen to this episode
A recent post from Calculated Risk begins
Just thinking out loud ...
Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke argued that the recent slowdown was mostly due to temporary factors. From the FOMC statement: "The slower pace of the recovery reflects in part factors that are likely to be temporary, including the damping effect of higher food and energy prices on consumer purchasing power andAlanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07323700324276425194noreply@blogger.com8tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1527766217650773141.post-47127692622185778262011-06-20T22:21:00.000-07:002011-06-20T22:21:39.231-07:00The dance of death: Demand for austerity by the periphery to save the insolvent banks at the coreWilliam K. Black has written an important summary analysis of the EU's dance of death.
Destroying the Periphery in Order to Save the Core's Banks
Demand Side has edited the piece and provides it below.
Gary O’Callaghan, a former IMF economist has written ...
“[H]ow important is it that the programs succeed? Obviously it is crucial. The success of the programs is key to the survival of the Alanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07323700324276425194noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1527766217650773141.post-70379812738098360502011-06-19T20:26:00.000-07:002011-06-20T11:11:15.521-07:00Transcript 447: June's Punch ListListen to this episode
Today on the podcast, information outside the echo chamber, but inside the sound bite. June’s punch list of things you need to know that were not reported or are older than the six-day focus of mainstream media.
O
The protests in Greece against new bailout conditions are closer to the Arab Spring than anything else. It’s a mass action by a very broad cross-section of Alanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07323700324276425194noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1527766217650773141.post-37939996734053737312011-06-16T23:25:00.000-07:002011-06-16T23:25:23.453-07:00Idiot of the Week, the American Economics AssociationListen to this episode
Today’s idiot of the week is an edited version of a paper by Edward Fullbrook, published in issue 54 of the Real World Economic Review. The paper is entitled: “How to bring economics into the 3rd millennium by 2021”
In modern times no respected discipline has ever suffered such a radical and widespread decline in its public credibility as has economics since the Alanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07323700324276425194noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1527766217650773141.post-20870233754222617922011-06-14T23:13:00.000-07:002011-06-14T23:13:25.748-07:00Transcript: 445 Steve Keen and the Credit AcceleratorListen to this episode
This week, we’re looking at debt and money and the impending double dip with Australian economist Steve Keen.
On Monday, our reading of Keen described how money is not a function of the Fed in its wisdom creating some rate or level of base money that is then multiplied by a passive banking sector. Because introductory and advanced textbooks say this is the way it is Alanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07323700324276425194noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1527766217650773141.post-34400717980306637372011-06-12T20:22:00.000-07:002011-06-12T20:22:28.647-07:00Transcript: 444 Dude, Where’s my recovery?Listen to this episode
Occasionally I forget that Paul Krugman doesn’t know what he’s talking about, nor does Robert Reich, nor does Rachel Maddow, nor a host of other heart-in-the-right-place progressive personalities. Not that they are completely at sea, but that they have mischaracterized the cause and so the solution of the current depression. And to be fair, they are drifting toward the Alanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07323700324276425194noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1527766217650773141.post-51544918655833064962011-06-08T12:09:00.000-07:002011-06-08T12:09:46.509-07:00Transcript 442: Demand Side Forecast is proving outListen to this episode
Today's podcast was prepared not this week, not last week, but in January. You might call it the first of the "I told you so," series. In January happy days were here again. Q4 2010 GDP had come in at over 5.5. The dawn was breaking, life was going to be good according to the consensus. What happened? Another flock of black swans! GDP was revised down to under 4 forAlanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07323700324276425194noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1527766217650773141.post-76156262120139910372011-06-06T19:28:00.000-07:002011-06-06T19:28:42.564-07:00Transcript 441: Another crisis on the way, says Wray, but shared sacrifice may also be looming, says HocholListen to this episode
L Randall Wray
That was L.Randall Wray speaking to the Real News Netrowk. Wray is exactly right, and he is right to say that the rational restructuring of banks will not occur absent another, if inevitable, crisis. But there is some hope. Lost in the Medicare, Mediscare spinning of last week's victory by Democrat Kathy Hochol in New York's 26th District was her messageAlanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07323700324276425194noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1527766217650773141.post-12798896223765979322011-06-02T11:38:00.000-07:002011-06-02T11:38:01.299-07:00Transcript: 440 The Eurozone is failing by reason of cannibalismListen to this episode
Joseph Stiglitz:
There needed to be more political integration to make the Euro work, that was very clear. And many American commentators on the Euro at the time said, optimistically, this was an unfinished project. There will be a crisis sometime down the line. The hope was that when that crisis occurred, there would be an effective response.
I think the general senseAlanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07323700324276425194noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1527766217650773141.post-51386367628519831732011-05-18T23:31:00.000-07:002011-05-18T23:31:16.745-07:00Transcript: 439 View from both ends, political nonsense rulesListen to this episode
WILLIE “UGLY” TISEER:
I see abandoned buildings everywhere, businesses closed up, ah, small businesses throughout this nation. Everywhere I’ve gone in the last year, there are empty warehouses, empty commercial buildings, uh, small businesses closed up, out of business. Anywhere in the United States you go right now you’re going to see empty buildings, you’re gonna seeAlanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07323700324276425194noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1527766217650773141.post-21651677311033904012011-05-09T00:34:00.000-07:002011-05-09T00:35:15.808-07:00Transcript: 438 Nouriel Roubini on how to defuse the debt bombListen to this episode
NOURIEL ROUBINI: Well, when you have a high debt problem, there are only four solutions for it. The best solution, of course, is growth. Because if your growth is high, then you can solve any problem, especially a debt problem, because the denominator upward GDP income is rising more than the numerator. Unfortunately, because of the balance sheet crisis, we are not Alanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07323700324276425194noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1527766217650773141.post-16676048236801146122011-05-05T13:19:00.000-07:002011-05-06T22:46:29.621-07:00Transcript: 437 German banks in worse condition than the Greek state?Listen to this episode
437
AUDIO
That was George Magnus of UBS speaking to Bloomberg, admitting, more or less under his breath, that the hysteria around sovereign debt in Europe has not been about the sovereigns, but about the banks. If you have been following Demand Side for long, you are aware that we pegged this early on. Further, it is not the bonds that are restructured that is the Alanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07323700324276425194noreply@blogger.com4tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1527766217650773141.post-59893914042061253942011-04-26T21:04:00.001-07:002011-04-26T21:22:48.420-07:00Transcript: 436 Going Nowhere FastListen to this episode
Jeff Fisher:
My presumption is that capital markets are inherently unkind, don't actually care about things like fairness, are concerned about discounted cash flows, and so the beneficiary of productivity is the corporate shareholder unless society intervenes socially some other way. Does that provide cruelness to some people? Yes. But capital markets have never been Alanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07323700324276425194noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1527766217650773141.post-69832210993620278432011-04-19T21:33:00.000-07:002011-04-19T21:33:29.710-07:00Transcript: 435 Wall Street RulesListen to this episode
Next week we will move on to more interesting economics, starting with “Is the supply curve flat?” This week we are going to continue our theme of the year so far, also known as beating a dead horse. That is, “Why do we let the financial sector, the bankers, run the economy?”
Does it work? No. We have entered a period of continuous near-crisis.
Do they know what theyAlanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07323700324276425194noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1527766217650773141.post-69814266655580785902011-04-12T23:54:00.000-07:002011-04-12T23:54:52.659-07:00Transcript: 434 James K. Galbraith and Joseph StiglitzListen to this episode
James K. Galbraith
...When you think about this problem coherently, the long-term policy problem is the same as the short-term policy problem: it is to create jobs and to place the economy back on the footing of stable prosperity. That is the desirable objective per se, and something that will require a sustained effort, a new strategic direction (as well as comprehensive Alanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07323700324276425194noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1527766217650773141.post-1526351056945121872011-04-10T22:25:00.000-07:002011-04-10T22:25:00.643-07:00Transcript: 432b Relay James K. GalbraithListen to this episode
James K. Galbraith is one of the great economists of our time, and with one of the best outlooks for what can actually work. So we're just going to get out of the way.
James K. Galbraith
Keynote at the EPS Bernard Schwartz Symposium
October 2010
This morning I want to address a very specific aspect of the debate, and to do so as an economist. I want to ask whether the Alanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07323700324276425194noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1527766217650773141.post-26276363996678456912011-04-06T10:33:00.000-07:002011-04-06T10:35:38.797-07:00Transcript: 433 The Census Forecast is fadingListen to this episode
The best lagging indicator of the economy is the consensus forecast of professional economists. Whatever the previous quarter or two, it is amplified into the indefinite future by professional forecasters. This gives contrarians like Demand Side private satisfaction, but public problems.
As you know, according to Demand Side, we are bouncing along the bottom in a weak Alanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07323700324276425194noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1527766217650773141.post-30199240574671966802011-04-01T12:02:00.000-07:002011-04-01T12:02:25.144-07:00Transcript 432: What is Economics?Listen to this episode
Bill McKibbenTwo hundred years ago the level of carbon in the atmosphere was 275 parts per million. It had been that way all through the Holocene. Then we learned this new trick, burning coal and gas and oil. In essence we took millions and millions and millions of years of biological history, filed away there in oil wells and coal mines, and tossed it all up in the Alanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07323700324276425194noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1527766217650773141.post-85372204841922905512011-03-26T22:37:00.000-07:002011-03-28T22:50:57.011-07:00Transcript: Relay 431C Nouriel RoubiniListen to this episode
One of the few who called the housing bust and financial meltdown in public was Nouriel Roubini of the Stern School at New York University. In a period of two years, Roubini went from a perpetual outsider, Doctor Doom, Jr., perhaps, to being the toast of the economics set, keynoting conferences from Dubai to London to East Asia.
We featured Roubini in last week's regular Alanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07323700324276425194noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1527766217650773141.post-10570004172330954262011-03-26T13:41:00.000-07:002011-03-26T21:48:01.518-07:00Transcript: Relay 431B Barbara Kennelly on Social SecurityListen to this episode
As part of our continuing relay of the Economists for Peace and Security's Barnard Schwartz Symposium, today on the podcast we relay the keynote of Barbara Kennelly, a long-time and effective warrior for the cause of Social Security.
That Social Security, perhaps the oldest and most successful government program in history, should continually be the object of reactionary Alanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07323700324276425194noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1527766217650773141.post-91654006639504441262011-03-22T23:45:00.000-07:002011-03-22T23:46:06.960-07:00Transcript: 431 Triple Shocks: Japan, Oil, European DebtListen to this episode
Nouriel Roubini
In my view, the fundamental problems of the peripherals are not going to be resolved by a lower interest rate on the official loan. Greece has a public debt that is going to be soon 150 percent of GDP. The Irish banks are in big trouble, and putting their liabilities on the balance sheet of the government makes the government insolvent. So you need Alanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07323700324276425194noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1527766217650773141.post-77724487234678093152011-03-18T23:48:00.000-07:002011-03-18T23:49:08.254-07:00Transcript: 430B Relay: Barack Obama is No FDRListen to this episode
What happened to the model of the Great Depression. When Barack Obama entered office, he was widely viewed as having the opportunity to replicate the success of Franklin Delano Roosevelt, to bring the progressive energy to a serious national crisis.
It turns out that the nation has benefitted from the laws past those seventy and eighty years ago more than it has from the Alanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07323700324276425194noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1527766217650773141.post-63499503685417938952011-03-15T23:20:00.000-07:002011-03-15T23:25:31.760-07:00Transcript:: 430 Economic common sense vs. Neoliberal fantasy theologyListen to this episode
PALLEY
We are stuck in what a friend of mine, Stephan Schulmeister, calls “the neoliberal two-step.”
The two-step works as follows. Step one is you adopt neoliberal economic policy and create a problem. Step two is then you claim we need more neoliberal policy to solve the problem. It really is that simple. That is exactly what’s going on with the budget deficit debate Alanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07323700324276425194noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1527766217650773141.post-70882626113622310812011-03-12T16:34:00.000-08:002011-03-12T16:34:30.350-08:00The Neoliberal Two-Step vs. Solid Public Investment, Transcript: 429-B EPS Schwartz Symposium I: Intro, Thomas PalleyListen to this episode
We begin a series of Demand Side relays today. Over the next four or five weeks we will be relaying in its entirety the Bernard Schwartz Symposium of the Economists for Peace and Security. That symposium, entitled A Strategic Policy: Investment, Social Security and Economic Recovery, was held in early October, 2010, and thus benefits us additionally by recalling at leastAlanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07323700324276425194noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1527766217650773141.post-19709778572759600712011-03-08T09:26:00.000-08:002011-03-08T09:28:42.646-08:00Transcript: 429 Recession, the real economy, and whether to cede a point to win an argumentListen to this episode
Heather Boushey
And this is the moment when I often think about people like my mom. Right? She’s a good person, typically votes Democratic. Not an economist. Doesn’t get it. You can’t explain to her why we can have deficits from now until as far as the eye can see and that that won’t make something bad happen to the economy. It just doesn’t … You can’t connect with peopleAlanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07323700324276425194noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1527766217650773141.post-83515701157707633122011-03-04T14:21:00.000-08:002011-03-04T14:21:22.463-08:00Robert Kuttner asks: How do we get the answers on the table again?Robert Kuttner.Co-founder and co-editor of The American Prospect
Posted: February 27, 2011
My friend, the late Mike Harrington, used to describe his politics as "on the left wing of the possible." It's a fine aspiration. But if anything, economic problems have become more politically intractable since Mike died in 1989.
Scanning the various economic ills afflicting our Republic and its Alanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07323700324276425194noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1527766217650773141.post-61454746191463618422011-02-27T20:45:00.000-08:002011-02-27T20:45:18.947-08:00Transcript: Double, double, oil and bubble, Economies burn, prices' troubleListen to this episode
AUDIO
“In my view, we’ve got plenty of oil, we’ve got plenty of gasoline, we’ve got plenty of diesel fuel, but if the global oil market stays above $100, and now with the situation of Lybia, which is quites serious, we stay there for quite some time, unfortunately.
“Refining capacity? We have too much. That means we have too much oil, ah, with too much refining capacityAlanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07323700324276425194noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1527766217650773141.post-76216285271717485472011-02-24T12:16:00.000-08:002011-02-24T12:17:46.123-08:00Transcript: 427 BRIC's falling, North Africa rising -- Made at the Fed?Listen to this episode
AUDIO
Westpac’s James Shugg
Today on the podcast, commodity prices, food prices, global unrest, domestic shots from David Rosenberg and James K. Galbraith, and back to the emerging BRIC’s.
There is a distinction we have been trying to draw over the past few months here at Demadn Side. The commodity bubble now unfolding is a prominent element of our 2011 forecast. We Alanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07323700324276425194noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1527766217650773141.post-79045394167284115812011-02-16T22:10:00.000-08:002011-02-16T22:12:18.555-08:00Transcript: 426 Inequality, Inflation, Investment and InstabilityListen to this episode
We begin with epidemiologists Richard Wilkinson and Kate Pickett
[Note, the podcast contains audio from Tom Ashbrook's On Point interview. The following is an exerpt from the book "The Spirit Level."]
Inequality: the enemy between us?
As if to overcome their reputation as practitioners of the ‘dismal science’, economists are now producing an economics of happiness. Alanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07323700324276425194noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1527766217650773141.post-84494821650269188072011-02-09T19:48:00.001-08:002011-02-09T19:48:19.422-08:00Kumhof and Ranciere answer the question, “Does income inequality lead to crisis?” Inequality, Leverage and Crises From Global Economic Intersection Guest Authors: Michael Kumhof, International Monetary Fund and Romain Ranciere, Paris School of Economics and International Monetary Fund. Contact information available here. Authors’ notes: The views expressed in this paper are those of the authors and do not necessarily represent those of the IMF or IMF policy. We Alanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07323700324276425194noreply@blogger.com5tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1527766217650773141.post-15097956682488182582011-02-07T23:18:00.000-08:002011-02-07T23:21:08.295-08:00Transcript: Forecast Part 3: Unemployment drops to 9.0 -- What's wrong with this picture?Listen to this episode
DUNKELBERG 1
Doesn't sound too bad. That's Mr. William Dunkelberg from a January 12 presentation to the National Economists Club. Mr. Dunkelberg is today's Ronald Reagan memorial Idiot of the Week. In this clip he is constrained by the facts and their most obvious ramifications. Later it will not be so. That's after the forecast section of our podcast.
One of the secretAlanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07323700324276425194noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1527766217650773141.post-46347311434614872162011-02-01T21:00:00.000-08:002011-02-01T21:00:24.558-08:00Transcript: Forecast Part 2: GDP and Net GDPListen to this episode
AUDIO
CARL SAFINA
We don't understand the difference between the price of things, the value of things and the cost of things. For instance, coal. Coal is a dirty fossil fuel that is changing the atmosphere, and yet everybody says we have to use a lot of coal because it is so cheap compared to other fuels. Well, it is cheap because there is a lot of it, and because the Alanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07323700324276425194noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1527766217650773141.post-20892607426218068782011-01-29T07:57:00.000-08:002011-01-29T08:20:20.450-08:00William K. Black answers the question, "Why is 'Wall Street' not in the Financial Crisis Inquirity Report?""Why are we suffering recurrent, intensifying crises? To answer this question we must find not only the causes of the crises, but also (and even more importantly) why we fail to learn the correct lessons ... and keep making even worse policy mistakes. The answer to the second part is dogma. The definition of dogma is that it cannot be examined or changed – except to become even purer."
Friday, Alanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07323700324276425194noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1527766217650773141.post-80196330723322141692011-01-27T22:45:00.000-08:002011-01-27T23:10:57.026-08:00Minsky's elegant algebraAs promised, here is the elegant algebra from Hyman Minsky which demonstrates the root of profits, the root of inflation, and where the fruit of government deficits goes.
Alanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07323700324276425194noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1527766217650773141.post-45136204797556743052011-01-25T21:34:00.000-08:002011-01-25T21:34:35.066-08:00421: Forecast: Stagnant Inflation and Investment, featuring Hyman Minsky and Jeffrey SachsListen to this episode
Today on the podcast, the Demand Side Forecast moves into inflation and investment, with able assistance from Hyman Minsky. We also take a listen to Jeffrey Sachs on economics, policy and governing.
SACHS
Jeffrey Sachs, speaking to the Economist. More of Sachs remarks at the end of today's podcast.
Now, Inflation and Investment. Forecast: Stagnation in both. NotAlanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07323700324276425194noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1527766217650773141.post-45389641721039336512011-01-19T22:58:00.000-08:002011-06-07T10:30:53.581-07:00Transcript: 420 Forecast 1: Recession of 2011Listen to this episode
That was Wall Street's favorite bear, David Rosenberg. More from him later in the podcast.
As an economic recovery denier, Demand Side can hardly be expected to have the optimistic view of the world going forward that most economic forecasters are demonstrating. Even Rosenberg's "getting better in dribs and drabs" to us is bouncing along the bottom, with as much bad Alanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07323700324276425194noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1527766217650773141.post-29480400504288417862011-01-13T21:26:00.000-08:002011-01-13T21:26:21.028-08:00Transcript: 419B Non-Events of 2010, Part IIListen to this episode
FED MONETARY POLICY IS DOING SOME GOOD
or alternatively
THE FED IS COMMITTED TO DOING WHATEVER IT TAKES
It is virtually a theme of the Demand Side podcast to demand that the Fed show some results for its extraordinary interest rates, its unprecedented purchases of toxic securities, and its so-called Quantitative Easing, essentially pushing money into the financial Alanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07323700324276425194noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1527766217650773141.post-71223872773331141702011-01-12T19:04:00.001-08:002011-01-12T19:22:01.618-08:00L. Randall Wray asks “How long until the fall of orthodox macro?”Monday, January 10, 2011Pressures on the Paradigm: The Fall of the New Monetary ConsensusBy L. Randall Wray
The following is a paper given at the ASSA conference in Denver this past week for a panel organized by James Galbraith, titled Pressures on the Paradigm, sponsored by Economists for Peace & Security.
The Queen famously asked her economists why none had seen the global crisis coming. Alanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07323700324276425194noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1527766217650773141.post-30807085704623261662011-01-11T20:04:00.000-08:002011-01-11T20:04:47.886-08:00Transcript 419A: Non-Events of 2010, Part IListen to this episode
This is the Annual Demand Side account of news widely reported in the economics media that didn't really happen. Our list today is familiar from last year:
Housing prices have bottomed out
Problems with the banks have been resolved and banks have stabilized
Its corrolary, the bailout of banks has ended,
Demand is returning
The unemployment rate has topped out, Alanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07323700324276425194noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1527766217650773141.post-9186057496915827532011-01-04T21:57:00.000-08:002011-01-04T21:57:15.040-08:00Transcript: 418 Stiglitz on banks, Galbraith on jobsListen to this episode
STIGLITZ
Today on the podcast, Joseph Stiglitz on banks, James K. Galbraith on jobs, and an extended Idiot of the Week, featuring everybody's favorite newspaper, the Economist magazine.
First, Joseph Stiglitz,
STIGLITZ
GALBRAITH
"Idiot of the Week"
Today's idiot of the week is a duo. Tweedle Dee and Tweedle Dum, Laurel and Hardy, Lockwood and Ip. If there is a Alanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07323700324276425194noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1527766217650773141.post-53958765669793372692010-12-13T21:24:00.000-08:002010-12-13T21:24:09.851-08:00Transcript: 417 Does the ransom for the tax deal amount to a return of Bush II economics?Listen to this episode
Recovery in the midst of recession. Or is it recession in the midst of recovery? Plus will the Democrats shoot themselves in the political foot if they don't pay the king's ransom of tax cuts for the rich? And we look in on the continuing crisis in Europe, where defense of the banking sector is being cast as defense of the euro as a currency, and some folks don't like Alanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07323700324276425194noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1527766217650773141.post-31013835519286424802010-12-07T20:46:00.000-08:002010-12-07T20:46:00.590-08:00Transcript: 416 Answer to the QueenListen to this episode
Links
Econ Intersect, John Lounsbury
"No One Saw This Coming," Dirk Bezemer, Gronigen Univesity
"Why Credit Money Fails," Steve Keen (with access to video and audio)
Professor Luis Garicano, director of research at the LSE's management department, said: 'The Queen asked me, "If these things were so large, how come everyone missed them?".'
Today the answer to the Alanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07323700324276425194noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1527766217650773141.post-38866806998893251752010-12-01T21:46:00.000-08:002010-12-01T21:46:05.404-08:00Transcript: 415 The Greenspan put expires with the economy out on a limbListen to this episode
We were somewhat taken aback this week when Calculated Risk, one of the people we rely on most for data and analysis -- find him at CalculatedRisk.com -- opined that things were getting better. Our view at Demand Side, as you know, is and has been that things are bouncing along the bottom with significant downside risks for another crisis.
We'll look today at what CR Alanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07323700324276425194noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1527766217650773141.post-53563426722100337092010-11-25T13:28:00.000-08:002010-11-25T13:28:59.715-08:00Transcript: 414 The Irish bailout of the German banksListen to this episode
The Celtic Chimera
By William K. Black
November 17, 2010
Ireland was known as the “Celtic Tiger.” It shot to economic fame. From the poor man of Northern Europe, it was transformed into a nation with a reported per capita GDP equivalent to that of the United States. The old, true, and painful joke: “What's Ireland leading export? (Answer: “the Irish”) was reversed asAlanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07323700324276425194noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1527766217650773141.post-42479210683038836382010-11-19T20:26:00.000-08:002010-11-19T20:26:42.037-08:00Transcript: 413 The rule of free trade: money flows to powerListen to this episode
413
Trade, an angle on the German position in the current drama in Europe, forecasts, Robert Kuttner on the deficit reduction commision, taxes and oil prices, and more.
First Trade.
Money flows to power. This is a principle suggested forty-five years ago by John Kenneth Galbraith and a prime cause for the failure of free trade to make people better off.
Money is Alanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07323700324276425194noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1527766217650773141.post-60229735733455807662010-11-12T13:02:00.000-08:002010-11-15T18:32:19.773-08:00Transcript: 412 Deficit reduction, taxes, and how not to crash the economyListen to this episode
The question of fully funding government has come back to the top of the legislative agenda on Capitol Hill. Up until this week, the question was connected to the extension of the Bush tax cuts for the rich. Now, Alan Simpson and Erskine B. Bowles, co-chairmen of President Obama’s panel on reducing the national debt, released a report that surprised many people. They Alanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07323700324276425194noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1527766217650773141.post-70117047587989734482010-11-05T08:55:00.000-07:002010-11-05T20:36:32.272-07:00Transcript: 411 Austerity, Idiots and Potential Mistakes, with Allan Meltzer and Robert PollinListen to this episode
The clash of headlines has been remarkable since the election.
Stocks closed Thursday at their highest level since the collapse of Lehman Brothers
On news of an unexpected surge in unemployment appllications -- up to 467,000
No, probably on the long-anticipated acquiescence of the Fed to the Market's demand for more money.
Dollar down, oil prices up.
Bloomberg Alanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07323700324276425194noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1527766217650773141.post-86593634537226296002010-11-04T08:51:00.000-07:002010-11-04T13:38:45.607-07:00Transcript: 410 The Political Business CycleListen to this episode
Today on the podcast, an extended Idiot of the Week with a Fed historian who is celebrating with the tea party today Allan Meltzer. Also the excerpt from Robert Pollin on the error of austerity we promised. But first
This election will mark a significant downturn in the economy. It did not matter who won. This is the way it was planned. The stimulus was enacted in Alanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07323700324276425194noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1527766217650773141.post-73716571215991562592010-11-03T10:30:00.001-07:002010-11-03T10:30:22.678-07:00What Lessons for Democrats? Robert Kuttner answersWhat Lessons of Election Day?
Robert Kuttner
October 31, 2010
One of the myths of this stunted political moment is that Barack Obama "tried to do too much," and that purist, ungrateful liberals are mad at him over things like the absence of a public option in his heath bill. This is dangerous nonsense, and it matters because these widespread views among the pundit class will influence what Alanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07323700324276425194noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1527766217650773141.post-13929024724132083952010-10-26T20:25:00.000-07:002010-10-26T20:25:27.362-07:00Transcript: 409 Shrinking our way to growthListen to this episode
Shrinking our Way to Growth -- the Austerity Prescription
The Austerity camp has taken control of the public agenda. Today we have Paul Krugman and Martin Wolf to help us push back. Next time, we'll give you some Robert Pollin. Also today some observations from Rick Davis on the psychology of the household -- the FUD index -- Fear, uncertainty and doubt.
First we haveAlanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07323700324276425194noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1527766217650773141.post-47080445062304627742010-10-24T20:13:00.001-07:002010-10-24T20:14:51.892-07:00Are there economic speeches that need to be given? Robert Kuttner offers twoTwo Speeches Obama Should Give -- and Probably Won'tRobert Kuttner
October 24, 2010Is the election basically sewn up, with the House gone and the Senate hanging in the balance? If things continue as they have been going, almost surely.Voters are still seeking some signs that the Democrats are on their side. Here are two speeches Obama should give, and probably won't. One concerns Social Security,Alanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07323700324276425194noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1527766217650773141.post-36392668605070842902010-10-23T14:26:00.001-07:002010-10-23T14:26:41.093-07:00Fear Uncertainty and DoubtPolitical “FUD” and the Consumer Psyche Posted on 19 October 2010 by Rick Davis Note: Global Economic Intersection welcomes Rick Davis as a regular contributor. Rick is founder and CEO of the Consumer Metrics Institute follows the state of the economy as reflected by consumer discretionary durable goods spending. Fear, uncertainty and doubt (“FUD”) in any form increases cautious Alanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07323700324276425194noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1527766217650773141.post-56316530862835331922010-10-21T19:00:00.000-07:002010-10-21T19:00:23.964-07:00Transcript: 408 The Sinking of QE IIListen to this episode
Today on the podcast, Joe Stiglitz, the unintended consequences of the Fed's monetary policy, and the throw of the dice that is QE2. But first this.
BREAK
Tom Busby of the Diversified Trading Institute
The weak of constitution may want to cover their ears.
Busby
There you have it. Gridlock. The recipe for recovery. Even if Republicans sweep, their plan seems to Alanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07323700324276425194noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1527766217650773141.post-6161108585837750612010-10-15T12:49:00.001-07:002010-10-15T12:49:58.442-07:00Currency and Trade Wars Feed on Stagnation, a take from Nouriel RoubiniOnly the Weak Survive
Nouriel Roubini
Project Syndicate
October 14, 2010
The risk of global currency and trade wars is rising, with most economies now engaged in competitive devaluations. All are playing a game that some must lose.
Today’s tensions are rooted in paralysis on global rebalancing. Over-spending countries – such as the United States and other “Anglo-Saxon” economies – that were Alanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07323700324276425194noreply@blogger.com3tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1527766217650773141.post-91763273184598712802010-10-14T21:09:00.001-07:002010-10-14T21:09:42.232-07:00Taxes and Wealth Distribution, Imagined and Real, from David Cay JohnstonUnited In Our Delusion David Cay Johnston | Oct. 12, 2010 09:47 PM EDT Before reading on, please get out a pen or pencil so you can write down the answer to this question: What percentage of wealth in America is owned by the poorest 40 percent? Wealth, or net worth, means all property of value, from cash to art to stocks and bonds to homes, minus debts. Answer: I estimate that ________ Alanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07323700324276425194noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1527766217650773141.post-2482714196983721882010-10-12T21:13:00.000-07:002010-10-12T21:13:46.712-07:00Transcript: 407X Remarks by Paul Krugman, Jan Hatzius and Martin FeldsteinListen to this episode
The following is a segment of a conversation between three noted mainstream economists sponsored by EPI, CBPP, Demos and the Century Foundation. It took place October 4, 2010.
Presentation: Transcript at http://www.cbpp.org/files/10-6-10bud-panel-02.pdf
That from
Jackie Calmes, New York Times
Jan Hatzius, Goldman Sachs
Paul Krugman, New York Times
Martin Feldstein, Alanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07323700324276425194noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1527766217650773141.post-68556565675636829632010-10-12T18:31:00.001-07:002010-10-12T18:31:27.782-07:00What is QE 2.0? One of the very best sources on the Internet is the new EconIntersect. Here Steven Hansen delves the mysteries of quantitative easing. What is the Fed up to? Do they even know themselves? Fed Still Offers No Clues for QE 2.0 Posted on 12 October 2010 by Steven Hansen The most important aspect of reading the September 21, 2010 Federal Reserve FOMC meeting minutes is trying to get your Alanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07323700324276425194noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1527766217650773141.post-41941956302778931452010-10-10T19:33:00.000-07:002010-10-10T19:33:06.975-07:00David Harvey's Marxian View(ht ....)
or here is the link: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qOP2V_np2c0Alanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07323700324276425194noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1527766217650773141.post-40526840403544133682010-10-06T17:10:00.000-07:002010-10-06T17:10:05.804-07:00Transcript: 407 ForecastListen to this episode
The Forecast Returns,
Karl Popper's line oft quoted by George Soros and replicated on one of the Demand Side blog sites, is,
"Predictions and explanations are symmetrical and reversible." Which is the opposite of the disclaimer which accompanies most private and public forecasts. That disclaimer goes something like, "Of course, economic forecasts are subject to extremeAlanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07323700324276425194noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1527766217650773141.post-24813708566339090162010-10-03T21:41:00.001-07:002010-10-03T21:42:13.417-07:00Rubinomics Defined and LinkedRubinomicsFrom Bryce Covert
New Deal 2.0
September 14, 2010
What is Rubinomics?
The term is a portmanteau of Rubin and economics, named for Robert Rubin, former Secretary of the Treasury under President Clinton. Rubinomics holds that economic growth can best be achieved by cutting the deficit and balancing the budget. Interest rates lower as inflation fears are quelled, which is then supposed Alanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07323700324276425194noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1527766217650773141.post-57384266654491454982010-10-01T21:08:00.000-07:002010-10-01T21:08:00.117-07:00Austerity: How the middle class pays twice for the bank's blunders -- videoWatsonMedia presents Mark Blyth on Austerity from The Global Conversation on Vimeo.Alanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07323700324276425194noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1527766217650773141.post-88835384732978212302010-09-30T20:28:00.000-07:002010-09-30T20:28:45.380-07:00Transcript: 406 Carbon as the Core of RecoveryListen to this episode
Last week we did part one, this week it's
BREAK
Wait, wait, wait. It's part two of carbon as the core of an economic reconstruction of the U.S.
BREAK
Okay, okay, Here we have Joe Mason, professor of banking at Lousiana State University
MASON
Coming out waving as many red flags as he can at the pollitically naive, we might expect Professor Mason has some weak Alanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07323700324276425194noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1527766217650773141.post-43052483639530412032010-09-24T21:49:00.000-07:002010-09-24T21:49:05.671-07:00Transcript: 405 Summers out, Recession over, Fed still at seaListen to this episode
Today on the podcast, personnel changes at the White House, the NBER calls an end to the recession, and then carbon prices, the engine of economic recovery question mark, with Joseph Stiglitz and Johan Rockstrom.
NEWS
Larry Summers is leaving as point man on the economy in the White House and returning to Harvard. This may signal a change in economic tack, and will Alanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07323700324276425194noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1527766217650773141.post-18447844192191501412010-09-16T13:24:00.000-07:002010-09-16T13:24:26.682-07:00Transcript: 404 The Four Major Forecasting ErrorsListen to this episode
Today on the podcast, we have a full boat, Hyman Minsky, presidential economics, the four main errors of economic forecasters and --- yes -- Idiot of the Week.
The last portion today is an extended excerpt from the Obama press conference from last week as it regards the economy, to give you a notion of what the political terrain looks like. And we -- like Robert Shiller Alanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07323700324276425194noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1527766217650773141.post-89154583403893624412010-09-10T14:59:00.001-07:002010-09-10T14:59:13.617-07:00Joseph Stiglitz is still waiting for a fix to the housing market Fixing America’s Broken Housing Market Joseph E. Stiglitz Project Syndicate 2010-09-08 NEW YORK – A sure sign of a dysfunctional market economy is the persistence of unemployment. In the United States today, one out of six workers who would like a full-time job can’t find one. It is an economy with huge unmet needs and yet vast idle resources. The housing market is another US anomaly: Alanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07323700324276425194noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1527766217650773141.post-72369562542535604692010-09-09T20:10:00.001-07:002010-09-09T20:10:26.759-07:00James K. Galbraith asks, “What can be done now?” Galbraith: Thoughts on a Plan B In July 2008, in a memorandum for the Obama campaign team and later published in Challenge, I wrote as follows: If the above analysis is correct, the political capital of the new presidency risks being depleted, quite quickly, in a series of short-term stimulus efforts that will do little more than buoy the economy for a few months each. Since they will Alanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07323700324276425194noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1527766217650773141.post-15119457867396589352010-09-08T19:49:00.000-07:002010-09-08T19:49:10.318-07:00Transcript: 403 Obama Plan: More infrastructure, more recovery juice neededListen to this episode
The failure of economic policy in America and in Iraq. We look at liberal analysis of what went wrong and what to do about it from Robert Reich and Paul Krugman with regard to the U.S. On Iraq, we cast back to George Marshall and the Marshall plan, with a nod to George McGovern and the McGovern plan. And we’ll throw in an idiot of the week.
We begin with an anticipationAlanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07323700324276425194noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1527766217650773141.post-90284624558454340222010-09-05T14:36:00.001-07:002010-09-05T14:36:00.764-07:00Steve Keen: “Back to the Future” in the U.S. economy Back to the Future Published in September 5th, 2010 by Steve Keen in Debtwatch Things are looking grim indeed for the US economy. Unemployment is out of control—especially if you consider the U-6 (16.7%, up 0.2% in the last month) and Shadowstats (22%, up 0.3%) measures, which are far more realistic than the effectively public relations U-3 number that passes for the “official” unemploymentAlanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07323700324276425194noreply@blogger.com2